臼井静ちゃん、藤崎奈々子ちゃん、三宅えみちゃん、藤川京子ちゃん、堀口としみちゃん、岡村結ちゃん 誕生日おめでとうございま〜す！
なにやら世間はディープインパクト一色のようですが、この手の脚質おんり〜の馬の1本被りは危険このうえないです。
なぜなら先行馬にそれなりに上がられたらそれを差すのは大変だからです。それをはるかに上回る上がりをしなくちゃいけない。時に実現不可能な状況にも陥ることがあるわけです。
当たり前といえば当たり前のことなのですが、どっかこの当たり前の理屈が軽んじられています。
マイルCSが好例だと思うのですが、実はレースで最速の上がり3Fはデュランダルだったのです。それでも6着。澱みない流れを先行してかつ上がりも衰えないダイワメジャーを狙うべきレースだったわけです。「前代未聞なほどずぶい馬」（ぺリエ）というハットトリックをほぼ1600m全てにわたって追い通したぺリエの執念的騎乗が勝ったわけですが、これは1本被りの馬ではできない芸当です。1本被りの馬はその馬の競馬をすることが求められてしまうからです。
今回のディープインパクトも同様で、まずいつも通りの競馬。つか、それしかできないはずです。
そこで狙いは逆脚質の馬で、当然のことタップダンスシチー。
前走のJCではなんと2000mを1分57秒5で通過。それでもバテずに見せ場たっぷりの7着。スタミナだけでなくスピード面でも健在ぶりをまざまざと見せつけました。
別にひっかかっていたわけではないので、今回は6回もコーナーを回るコース形態を生かして変幻自在なレースをしてくれることでしょう。コーナーで息を整えながらかつ時折ペースを上げる。レースの本当の主役はタップだと思います。
必ず早目にスパートすると思うので、4コーナー時点ではタップとディープの差はどう低く見積もっても15馬身以上。20馬身以上差がついている可能性はかなり高いと思います。
それでもディープが差すというのであれば仕方が無いです。少なくとも俺はタップの押し切りが本命です。
ただ、この展開だと一番辛いのは番手系なので、相手は後ろ組を強調で、一応ディープインパクトとデルタブルース。ハーツクライは不器用なのでコーナー6回も回るコースは不利と見て無印です。ディープはさらに不器用だと思うのですが、結局のところ敬意を表しての対抗。
一方デルタブルースはレース巧者な面があるので中山は良いでしょうね。距離はやや短いのですが、タップの逃げでスタミナが問われるレースになるので狙いが立ちます。これが▲。馬券的にはこっちが本線かなと。
レースが終わった後にここが笑われ者にならないことを願っています（汗）
最重要なのはWELCOME DANCE。ちょっと照明が暗かった。1/25は辛い。
これで見納めの子もけっこういたわけでちょっと淋しいですね。でもまた来季になればそれだけかわいい子がやってくるものと願って・・・
はじめまして！よくFちゃんのとこでお名前は拝見しております（笑） 有馬の予想を後押ししていただいてありがとうございます。 正直批判されるのを覚悟して書いたんですけどね（笑） これからもよろしくお願いしま〜す！＞ザクレロさん
わ〜〜い！ありがとうございま〜〜す！ 本当に土曜日は楽しかったですね♪あの発言は思わず飛び出しました。だから素なんですよ（笑）＞☆裸々☆ちゃん
哲三騎手にインタビューしたことがあるんだ？俺的にもかなり好きなジョッキーなんですよ。 つか、あれは読めないよ・・・( ;^^)ヘ..＞まろちゃん
eebf54325b0b
いじりーさん、はじめまして。よくこちら様を拝見をしていますが有馬の予想は全くおっしゃる通りだと思います。(オースミハルカも内枠を引けば飛ばすでしょうけどあの牝馬にこの距離は長いですからね。)タップ本命にデルタ対抗の予想もいいですね。<br>笑われ者にはならないと思うんで(笑)ウチも応援をしています。
日記はっててくれてたからあそびにきちゃぃましたぁぁ(o^▽'o)v土曜日の日記うれしぃですっっo(≧∀≦*)o裸々も本当楽しかったぁぁぁヾ(○^▽^)ノあなたすべて萌ぇ〜』はいじ☆り〜さんの名言ですよぉぉっ(>▽<*)/榕榕
タップダンスシチー残念！<br>てっちゃん（ジョッキー）は小倉競馬でレポートしたので応援して買ったんだけど負けましたね(/д<*)゜。<br>６と１４は買ったけど１０は読めなかった。。
うんあります！レポーターやってから馬でなくジョッキーでも応援するようになりました(〃^∇^)ｏ_彡☆<br>てっちゃんはおもしろくていい人です！<br>夜一緒にみんなでお食事させてもらいました（＾−＾＊）
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